Secrets of Sports Betting – The Bookmakers Secrets!

During the 1980’s, I was part of a group, that used computers to win millions in sports wagers from Las Vegas Casinos. This was before personal computers were in everyday use. The invention we not call the internet was years away from having access to handicapping stats and data. We were successful for two reasons. First we were ahead of the odds makers in collecting important information. They were still doing things the old way, and we took advantage of that loophole.

Those days are gone forever. The second key to success, is to understand how the numbers really work.

ODDS DO NOT PREDICT THE WINNER

Think of it this way. “Odds do not predict who will win. They are actually predicting who the public THINKS will win.” Most sports punters, both professional and novice, do not understand the secrets of the bookmakers.

Two-way sports wagers, (meaning two teams with a 50-50 chance of winning with no ties) are posted at odds of 11-10. This means you wager £11 to win £10. Half the punters select team A, and collect their £10 when they win. The other punters choose team B, and lose the contest paying their bookie £11. You would think this gives the house or bookmaker a 4.55% advantage. You would be wrong with this assumption, but do not feel bad, 99.5% of the bettors think like you do.

THE BIG MISCONCEPTION

General thinking goes something like this. The bookmakers, insure themselves a profit only by balancing their books. In other words, they hope to get half the bets on each of the teams, thus they win every time. In reality, they hardly ever balance their books, or even come close. Your may find small local bookmakers, with small bankrolls, try to operate in this manner, but with so many internet shops available, even they can even up lopsided books. Many small bookmakers do not even know the secret. They are like the rest of the cattle and travel along with the herd. The erroneous belief that large sports bookmaking operations need to balance their bets is the big secret in the industry. What they do need to accomplish, is secure plenty of volume on both sides, without actually balancing the books.

THE BOOKMAKER’S SECRET REVEALED

Suppose the bettors in our example game, risked $165,000 to win $150,000 on the favourite. But the public only bet $82,500 on the underdog trying to win $75,000. This looks like a mismatch, with the bookmaker heading for big trouble if the favourite wins. If the dog prevails, the sports book makes a profit of $90,000. He wins $165,000 from the favourite bettors, and pays out $75,000 to the Dog winners. If the Favorite wins, the bookmaker loses $67,500. He will win $82,500 from the underdog backers, but lose $150,000 to the fans who bet the favourite. This results in a loss of $67,500.

Now you may be saying too yourself that math does not make the house a winner. So let us review, when the Underdog wins, the bookmaker wins $82,500 but if the favorite wins, he loses $67,500. Favourites and underdogs usually split the winning equally and each side 50% winning of the time. Half of the time he will lose $67,500, the other half he will win $82,500, so his profit is $15,000 no matter who wins. So in our example, what is the bookmaker really risking? The bookmaker is really risking $67,500 to win $82,500. In simple terms, he is essentially laying $75 to win $100. That means he does not have to even win 50% of the time to break even. The house only needs a 42.9% strike rate, after that, it is all profit.

TAKE DOWN A 33% PROFIT NO MATTER WHO WINS

Give me odds of losing $75 and winning $100 on a 50-50 coin flip wager. I will beat you every time with this huge house advantage. To most fans, the general thinking is the bookmaker needs to balance his books with equal wagers. From my example, you can see this is not true. When you have bettors risking twice as much on the favourite side, you are getting a 33% return on every dollar.

Arbitrage Betting Formula 1 – Part 3 – Sports Betting

Technology has always played a big part in affecting the outcome of a Formula 1 race. During the 60 years or so of its existence, the championship has seen advances in technology, although never forgetting the importance of the driver.

Two of the major innovations occurred during the early years – during the 1950s, Cooper’s revolutionary rear engine design led to two championship titles for Jack Brabham and in 1962, Lotus introduced their one piece chassis.

Technology developed rapidly during the 1970s and 80s and Formula 1 engineers began to be referred to as designers. The late 1970s saw the introduction of wings; and the early 1980s saw the widespread use of turbochargers.

Perhaps one of the most significant innovations was the so-called “ground effect” which used underbody design and side skirts, hugging the car to the ground. Improvements in design continue to play a big part in racing performance today. Several races are traditionally the highlights of the season. The Monaco Grand Prix which takes place through the winding streets of the principality is always exciting to watch.

At Monaco, the driver who gets pole position has an excellent chance of winning, as it is extremely difficult to overtake on the tight circuit. And in the UK, the British Grand Prix has become something of an institution since its inception in 1909, meaning a variety of betting options are available.

Sports betting is risky for the most part – many people who bet just occasionally are inexperienced and not knowledgeable. Many sports fans simply bet on their favorite team and often do not care too much whether they win or lose.

In fact, over 90% of people who bet on sporting events lose money; only a small percentage actually wins on a regular basis. However, there is a method of increasing the chances of winning, which is both easy and effective.

Hockey Betting Systems

Hockey betting systems will do wonders for your betting positions and give you a much better chance of collecting cash from your wins, as opposed to losing money from using trial and error methods. When you use effective hockey betting systems, you can essentially eliminate a large amount of uncertainty that is normally associated with amateur betting (especially amongst avid sports fans and beginners who place bets purely for entertainment purposes).

To set yourself apart from the amateur bettors and on your way to professional betting, the best hockey betting systems will bring you there. Having said that, here are a few betting tips that you can implement into your hockey betting systems:

Betting Against The Public

Basically, the sportsbook will always go along with the public, agreeing upon the public’s betting trends and patterns. Next, the sportsbook will then reduce the odds and thus the value of public betting. Keep in mind that NHL hockey bets are much less compared to NFL football betting, meaning that public bets are usually wrong. Given all of this, using your hockey betting systems to bet against the public. In other words, bet on the underdog team and you will have a better chance of seeing winning results.

Betting Against The Road Trip

Another addition you can implement into your hockey betting systems include betting against a team playing on the road. You can wait for a specific team to have a 3-game trip on the road. Several professional NHL bettors have developed proven statistical analyses that justify the fact that many teams do not play as well as they could on the road compared to when they are playing a home game. So, when a certain team plays a game on the road, you should bet on the home team of pulling off a win. If you end up losing that bet, you can double up on your next bet to a maximum of about three bets. Doing this will show you that rarely you will find that it will ever find its way to the third bet – in other words, you’ll most very likely be collecting profits by then.

Betting On The First Round Of Playoffs

The NHL playoffs are an exciting time of year and can definitely bring in some great winning cash if you use your hockey betting systems properly. One strategy is to put a lower valued bet on the underdog teams during the first two games during the first round of the playoffs. This works because the sportsbooks normally place de-valued figures on the chance of an upset, which often happens on a consistent basis each and every year. It’s a good idea to exploit this opportunity and gain from it since this trend is not looking like it will chance any time soon, statistically speaking.

Implementing the above strategies in NHL hockey betting will increase your chances of winning your bets, and when used in conjunction with effective hockey betting systems, will offer you the fantastic opportunity to become an expert NHL hockey bettor.

For more information, resources, and tipsters on hockey betting systems, visit www.BettingUnderground.info.

Betting is a Business – Gambling is For Idiots!

My question to you today is, how much profit are you really making from gambling? (And please be brutally honest with yourself when answering that question!)

I hope you are winning! If you are then well done to you, as that surely is the goal for most people, but even if you are a rare winning gambler, are you making as much as you could? However if you’re not a winner then don’t worry as your not alone. In fact you’re in very good company, as an amazing 98% of gamblers lose money long term.

So assuming you are not winning, do you know why?

Well I’m going to hazard a guess the reasons are something like this;

a) Betting in the wrong types of races,

b) Blindly backing favourites (especially odds on shots)

c) No sense of money management,

d) Undisciplined approach

e) Chasing losses

f) Maintaining a ‘gamblers mentality’.

However if 98% of people are losing money it stands to reason that 2% must be winning, so who are these elite 2% and what is it that they do differently to the majority?

Well the elite 2% are the professionals and semi-professionals like me and we approach betting as a business. The betting industry like to call us ‘professional gamblers’ but lets just make one thing absolutely clear here, one thing we are NOT are gamblers and this description couldn’t be further from the truth – we don’t bet for fun, or for the sake or thrill of it. We bet for one reason and one reason alone – TO MAKE A PROFIT!

I’ve said this many times before and I’m going to say it again – ‘Betting is a business and gambling is for idiots’ – So let me try and explain the difference between betting and gambling.

As I have already stated I am a professional and as such I am in the business of betting for only one reason – to secure slow and steady long term profitability. To achieve this outcome betting professionally has to be BORING and MUNDANE, from a psychological point of view the result of just one race becomes almost irrelevant to me, as in the long term I know I will make a profit from my betting strategies.

The point of running any business is to make a profit and to achieve this outcome I need the following three elements to work in my favour:

a) A betting bank,

b) A staking plan

c) A betting strategy which will deliver profits over the long term.

The betting bank needs to be big enough relative to my stake size to withstand the inevitable losing runs. It is also important that psychologically the betting stakes are well within my betting comfort zone, meaning that my pulse is never racing either before during or after a bet.

The moment your pulse starts to race should immediately alert you to the fact that you have stopped betting and are instead gambling, something has gone wrong with your strategy and you have become either uncomfortable with the size of your stake or have lost confidence in your chosen betting strategy. The inevitable result of this will be a breakdown of discipline and a desire to start chasing your losses, which is something I NEVER do. When I have a poor day then my attitude is always the same ‘cest la vie’, there will always another day.

I have many diverse and varied betting strategies within my betting portfolio but for the purposes of this exercise let me use my ‘Hughie’ Place Betting Strategy as an example of the above philosophy in action.

‘Hughie’ Place Betting Strategy

Here are the Hughie results for the six months to 01 June 2009. (I could use any 6 month period from over the past 9 years, in fact some previous half yearly figures would show higher profits. But these are the latest figures and emphasise the points I am trying to make.

The results are based on a betting bank of £400 and the stakes being used are as follows £2, £4, £8 and £12

Oct 1 + 77.63

Nov 1 +129.90

Dec 1 + 14.34

Jan 1 +179.83

Feb 1 +116.37

Mar 1 +169.58

Apr 1 – 3.62

May 1 + 13.81

Jun 1 + 77.78

The first thing you will notice is the relatively small and ‘boring’ size of the stakes I am using in relation to the size of the betting bank. By staking such a small percentage of the betting bank on the ‘Hughies’ takes all the stress away instantly, as the bank is never in any danger of going bust and the stake size is always well inside my betting comfort zone. Some of my members bet the ‘Hughies’ to much bigger stakes, however if the stakes are doubled or trebled then so must the bank.

As you can see you could comfortably follow this particular betting strategy to the advised stakes and at betfair sp safe in the knowledge that win, lose or draw over a long term period of say 6 months you would be comfortably in profit. You wouldn’t need to watch any races biting your finger nails praying that a particular horse hung on for a place, because you would be confident that the strategy works and one or two horses not placing wouldn’t make one jot of difference to the ability of the strategy to deliver a long term profit.

I keep using the phrase ‘long term’ because it is essential that you understand that it takes this long-term approach in order to succeed with any betting strategy. Just have another look at the ‘Hughie’ results above and you will clearly see that the months of March and April were not good months for the ‘Hughies’. At the time I remember saying regularly in my daily column that it was probably down to the transitional period of switching codes from the ‘jumps’ to the ‘flat’. For me though that’s just part and parcel of any strategy – we will have these bumps but will come away unscathed as all that matters is to maintain a long term strategy. The plan works, as it doesn’t require me to either lose faith or panic. That said any member who joined in March or April and followed my advice to concentrate on the ‘Hughies’ would have been pretty downhearted by the end of April as it would appear to them that the ‘Hughies’ are a poor bet. However any member joining last December enjoyed a terrific run and would have had a totally different opinion of both ‘place betting’ and me.

I think this point clearly demonstrates the importance of taking a long-term view of any betting strategy (12 months minimum I would argue)

Anyway this example of how safe, slow, steady, boring but consistent profits are generated month after month after month is just one aspect of a strategic and professional betting approach and hopefully demonstrates the difference between the excitement of gambling which is for thrill seekers and the boredom of betting which is my business.