Secrets of Sports Betting – The Bookmakers Secrets!

During the 1980’s, I was part of a group, that used computers to win millions in sports wagers from Las Vegas Casinos. This was before personal computers were in everyday use. The invention we not call the internet was years away from having access to handicapping stats and data. We were successful for two reasons. First we were ahead of the odds makers in collecting important information. They were still doing things the old way, and we took advantage of that loophole.

Those days are gone forever. The second key to success, is to understand how the numbers really work.

ODDS DO NOT PREDICT THE WINNER

Think of it this way. “Odds do not predict who will win. They are actually predicting who the public THINKS will win.” Most sports punters, both professional and novice, do not understand the secrets of the bookmakers.

Two-way sports wagers, (meaning two teams with a 50-50 chance of winning with no ties) are posted at odds of 11-10. This means you wager £11 to win £10. Half the punters select team A, and collect their £10 when they win. The other punters choose team B, and lose the contest paying their bookie £11. You would think this gives the house or bookmaker a 4.55% advantage. You would be wrong with this assumption, but do not feel bad, 99.5% of the bettors think like you do.

THE BIG MISCONCEPTION

General thinking goes something like this. The bookmakers, insure themselves a profit only by balancing their books. In other words, they hope to get half the bets on each of the teams, thus they win every time. In reality, they hardly ever balance their books, or even come close. Your may find small local bookmakers, with small bankrolls, try to operate in this manner, but with so many internet shops available, even they can even up lopsided books. Many small bookmakers do not even know the secret. They are like the rest of the cattle and travel along with the herd. The erroneous belief that large sports bookmaking operations need to balance their bets is the big secret in the industry. What they do need to accomplish, is secure plenty of volume on both sides, without actually balancing the books.

THE BOOKMAKER’S SECRET REVEALED

Suppose the bettors in our example game, risked $165,000 to win $150,000 on the favourite. But the public only bet $82,500 on the underdog trying to win $75,000. This looks like a mismatch, with the bookmaker heading for big trouble if the favourite wins. If the dog prevails, the sports book makes a profit of $90,000. He wins $165,000 from the favourite bettors, and pays out $75,000 to the Dog winners. If the Favorite wins, the bookmaker loses $67,500. He will win $82,500 from the underdog backers, but lose $150,000 to the fans who bet the favourite. This results in a loss of $67,500.

Now you may be saying too yourself that math does not make the house a winner. So let us review, when the Underdog wins, the bookmaker wins $82,500 but if the favorite wins, he loses $67,500. Favourites and underdogs usually split the winning equally and each side 50% winning of the time. Half of the time he will lose $67,500, the other half he will win $82,500, so his profit is $15,000 no matter who wins. So in our example, what is the bookmaker really risking? The bookmaker is really risking $67,500 to win $82,500. In simple terms, he is essentially laying $75 to win $100. That means he does not have to even win 50% of the time to break even. The house only needs a 42.9% strike rate, after that, it is all profit.

TAKE DOWN A 33% PROFIT NO MATTER WHO WINS

Give me odds of losing $75 and winning $100 on a 50-50 coin flip wager. I will beat you every time with this huge house advantage. To most fans, the general thinking is the bookmaker needs to balance his books with equal wagers. From my example, you can see this is not true. When you have bettors risking twice as much on the favourite side, you are getting a 33% return on every dollar.

Arbitrage Betting Formula 1 – Part 3 – Sports Betting

Technology has always played a big part in affecting the outcome of a Formula 1 race. During the 60 years or so of its existence, the championship has seen advances in technology, although never forgetting the importance of the driver.

Two of the major innovations occurred during the early years – during the 1950s, Cooper’s revolutionary rear engine design led to two championship titles for Jack Brabham and in 1962, Lotus introduced their one piece chassis.

Technology developed rapidly during the 1970s and 80s and Formula 1 engineers began to be referred to as designers. The late 1970s saw the introduction of wings; and the early 1980s saw the widespread use of turbochargers.

Perhaps one of the most significant innovations was the so-called “ground effect” which used underbody design and side skirts, hugging the car to the ground. Improvements in design continue to play a big part in racing performance today. Several races are traditionally the highlights of the season. The Monaco Grand Prix which takes place through the winding streets of the principality is always exciting to watch.

At Monaco, the driver who gets pole position has an excellent chance of winning, as it is extremely difficult to overtake on the tight circuit. And in the UK, the British Grand Prix has become something of an institution since its inception in 1909, meaning a variety of betting options are available.

Sports betting is risky for the most part – many people who bet just occasionally are inexperienced and not knowledgeable. Many sports fans simply bet on their favorite team and often do not care too much whether they win or lose.

In fact, over 90% of people who bet on sporting events lose money; only a small percentage actually wins on a regular basis. However, there is a method of increasing the chances of winning, which is both easy and effective.

Do You Know the Magic Number to Win at Sports Betting?

If you have been involved with sports betting for several years or just getting started I am sure you have seen companies advertising their pick services in your local newspaper, online or even on television. A lot of these ads are offering guaranteed games or claim winning rates of 80% and above. If you see these types of services, you should run in my personal opinion. I don’t care what they say, No One wins 80% – 90% of their games.

Does that mean that you can’t make money with sports betting? In short the answer is No, it is definitely possible to make substantial profits from sports betting, but you need to be realistic. If you have the proper discipline, manage your bankroll and following a winning sports betting system then creating a substantial passive income from betting on sports can be a reality. Knowing the magic # is the key.

So what is the magic #? The answer is 52.4%.If we use the most popular sports to bet on like NFL and NBA a normal bet would consist of betting against the spread with odds of 11/10 meaning that you would have to wager $110 to win back $100. What this means is that you would only have to win 52.4% of your bets to actually break even.Although hitting 80% plus winners is virtually impossible over the long haul, the good news is that anything above 52.4% will be profitable. Although winning 55% doesn’t sound that exciting, you can experience some really substantial returns each month.

Let’s use a 55% win rate and wagering on 2 games each day for this example. Here is what the results would look like after one month:

Win Rate 55%

# of Wagers 60 games (2 per day X 30 days)

# Wins 33

# Losses 27

Minus 10% Vig* 2.7

Total Wins: 3.3

*Vig is the % that the online sports books keep for accepting your wagers. Usually 10%

So what does this mean? Well with these numbers a $100 bettor would be up $330 profit after the month and a $1,000 bettor would be up $3,300. Not bad for a few minutes work each day, but let’s look at what this means in ROIpercentage (Return on Investment).

What I personally use and recommend is that if you are going to be flat betting or making the same size wager on each game then you should be using no more than 5% of your total bankroll. So if you have a total of $1,000 then you should be wager $50 per game. By sticking with the same numbers as the example above of +3.3 games this would actually be a gain of $165 and a return of 16.5% on your money in just 1 month. Compounding that over a full 12 months translates into over a 600 percent return on your money. I don’t know about you, but these are some incredible returns. Compare this to other investments like the stock market or the bank and you can clearly see that sports betting is a viable option even using a conservative example. Now imagine a 56% win rate or even 60 percentage.

Handicap Betting – Get the Most Out of Your Sports Bets by Using Handicaps

Handicap betting has earned tremendous fame recently among sports bettors worldwide. It allows punters people to bet on matches in which the odds are stacked in favor of one team or player essentially giving them an advantage. A similar process is used in golf, where amateur players are given a handicap of between one and thirty two, meaning they are admitted that number of additional shots when compared against a professional player, who would play from a handicap of zero. This signifies that in essence, the pro would begin with a score of negative sixteen if a player had a handicap of sixteen, for instance. This means that in a real golf game, where the players all play from zero, the wagerer can apply a handicap of their choice to players and their odds will change accordingly.

Among the sports where Handicap Betting is commonly used, the most popular tends to be football (soccer), though it is also commonlplace among all team sports generally. Typically, it is challenging to add handicaps to races unless they are scored according to the racer’s position rather than their overall finishing time.

For instance, in a Premiership football match between Newcastle and Chelsea the odds may be nearly even, perhaps slightly in favour of Newcastle due to a homefield advantage. However someone who wishes to bet on the game could allot Chelsea a handicap of two, which would in effect mean that for that punter, the match would begin with Newcastle already two goals behind even though the actual score would, of course. be nil – nil. Because of this, the odds would now be in Chelsea’s favour for that particular gambler. If Newcastle were to win by three clear goals they would win the match, though if they only won by one goal then Chelsea would win the match in terms of the handicap since they were given a two goal advantage. In turn, if Newcastle won by two goals then the match would be a draw. Some bookmakers would return the stake placed on games that end in a draw due to handicaps, but some establishments also offer “Handicap Draw” odds, which determine odds for games that finish as a draw.

This manner of wagering can make the betting experience more entertaining, as well as allow better odds on games in which the bettor is sure they can can correctly prediect the results. For instance in a match where a well-ranked team plays a team in a lower division, plainly there would not be a very good profit to be made by backing the clearly better team. Nonetheless if the smaller club were given a handicap, they could still bet on the better team winning but receive much better odds for it, though the higher-ranked team would then have to win by a higher margin for the bettor to still win their wager.